Edit: Written 13 Mar 2020. Numbers reflect what was known at the time. Some math has been refined for accuracy.
Some folks are trying to downplay COVID-19. One Facebook post in particular mentioned some mortality figures about the common, run-of-the-mill flu. “Say… X people died from it, and there was no panic.”
I’ll provide some sourced figures from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Granted, this is preliminary data but should illustrate the seriousness of COVID-19.
- Cases: Between 36,000,000 and 51,000,000
- Deaths: Between 22,000 and 55,000
- Mortality Range: Between 0.04% (≈ 4×10⁻⁴) and 0.15% (≈ 1.5×10⁻³)
US COVID-19 (as of 13 Mar 2020):
- Cases: 1,629
- Deaths: 41
- Mortality rate: ≈ 2.5% (≈ 2.5 × 10⁻²)
Observed case fatality among confirmed cases is ~2.5%, but true mortality is uncertain due to under-testing.
If you dig a little deeper, it gets even more serious. Take a look at these COVID-19 numbers. Average mortality hides how uneven the risk really is:
- to age 39: 0.2%
- 40-49: 0.4%
- 50-59: 1.3%
- 60-69: 3.6%
- 70-79: 8.0%
- 80+: 14.8%
If you have underlying medical conditions — like diabetes, heart disease, cancer survivor, immuno-compromised — you’re at a higher risk of death.
So, yeah, it’s kind of a big deal.
Aside from mortality rates, you know what else is interesting? The R₀ — or basic reproduction — factor. This number indicates how many other people will become infected once exposed to a carrier.
- Flu (1918 strain): 2 – 3
- COVID-19: 1.4 – 3.9
Huh. COVID-19 spreads at roughly the same order of magnitude as the 1918 influenza strain under comparable conditions…
…unless, of course, you believe the CDC and Wikipedia are part of a grand conspiracy.
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