{"id":168,"date":"2020-03-15T19:46:06","date_gmt":"2020-03-15T23:46:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.ciulla.org\/blog\/?p=168"},"modified":"2026-02-07T10:24:37","modified_gmt":"2026-02-07T15:24:37","slug":"covid-19-yeah-its-kinda-serious","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ciulla.org\/blog\/2020\/03\/15\/covid-19-yeah-its-kinda-serious\/","title":{"rendered":"COVID-19: Yeah, It&#8217;s Kinda Serious"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Edit: Written 13 Mar 2020. Numbers reflect what was known at the time. Some math has been refined for accuracy.<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p>Some folks are trying to downplay COVID-19. One Facebook post in particular mentioned some mortality figures about the common, run-of-the-mill flu. &#8220;Say&#8230; X people died from it, and there was no panic.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>I&#8217;ll provide some sourced figures from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Granted, this is preliminary data but should illustrate the seriousness of COVID-19.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cdc.gov\/flu\/about\/burden\/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm\">US Flu Season 2019-2020<\/a>:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Cases: Between 36,000,000 and 51,000,000<\/li>\n<li>Deaths: Between 22,000 and 55,000<\/li>\n<li>Mortality Range: Between 0.04% (\u2248 4\u00d710\u207b\u2074) and 0.15% (\u2248 1.5\u00d710\u207b\u00b3)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cdc.gov\/coronavirus\/2019-ncov\/cases-in-us.html\">US COVID-19 (as of 13 Mar 2020)<\/a>:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Cases: 1,629<\/li>\n<li>Deaths: 41<\/li>\n<li>Mortality rate: \u2248 2.5% (\u2248 2.5 \u00d7 10\u207b\u00b2)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Observed case fatality among confirmed cases is ~2.5%, but true mortality is uncertain due to under-testing.<\/p>\n<p>If you dig a little deeper, it gets even more serious. Take a look at these COVID-19 numbers. Average mortality hides how uneven the risk really is:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>to age 39: 0.2%<\/li>\n<li>40-49: 0.4%<\/li>\n<li>50-59: 1.3%<\/li>\n<li>60-69: 3.6%<\/li>\n<li>70-79: 8.0%<\/li>\n<li>80+: 14.8%<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>If you have underlying medical conditions &#8212; like diabetes, heart disease, cancer survivor, immuno-compromised &#8212; you&#8217;re at a higher risk of death.<\/p>\n<p>So, yeah, it&#8217;s kind of a big deal.<\/p>\n<p>Aside from mortality rates, you know what else is interesting? The R\u2080 &#8212; or basic reproduction &#8212; factor. This number indicates how many other people will become infected once exposed to a carrier.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Basic_reproduction_number\">From Wikipedia<\/a>:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Flu (1918 strain): 2 &#8211; 3<\/li>\n<li>COVID-19: 1.4 &#8211; 3.9<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Huh. COVID-19 spreads at roughly the same order of magnitude as the 1918 influenza strain under comparable conditions\u2026<\/p>\n<p>\u2026unless, of course, you believe the CDC and Wikipedia are part of a grand conspiracy.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Edit: Written 13 Mar 2020. Numbers reflect what was known at the time. Some math has been refined for accuracy. Some folks are trying to downplay COVID-19. One Facebook post in particular mentioned some mortality figures about the common, run-of-the-mill &hellip;<\/p>\n<p class=\"read-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.ciulla.org\/blog\/2020\/03\/15\/covid-19-yeah-its-kinda-serious\/\">Read more &raquo;<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[8,7],"class_list":["post-168","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-geek","tag-covid","tag-covid-19"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ciulla.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/168","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ciulla.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ciulla.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ciulla.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ciulla.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=168"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/www.ciulla.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/168\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":198,"href":"https:\/\/www.ciulla.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/168\/revisions\/198"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ciulla.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=168"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ciulla.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=168"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ciulla.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=168"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}